Researchers from the University of Alcala in Spain have predicted that life expectancy in 2030 will be 86.54 years for women and 83.13 years for men worldwide. The results of the study have been published in PLOS One.
As part of a new global study, scientists tracked trends in the rates of deaths from various causes in different countries and suggested that the rate of mortality around the world will decrease significantly. The research paper used data provided by the United Nations Population Fund. They included information on the life expectancy of people of different ages.
The team examined data from 1990 to 2020, grouping 194 countries around the world into clusters based on their similarities in nine mortality-related indicators. These indicators reflected the average life expectancy of citizens at birth and at age 65, as well as the modal age at end of life, or the total number of deaths occurring among people of a certain age in a population. These data prompted the “clustering” of countries into five clusters that correlated strongly with the five continents.
It is noted that the cluster that included Africa showed a significant reduction in all-cause mortality among the population. This is most likely due to the decline in HIV incidence and the end of various conflicts on the continent.
It was also found that the gap in life expectancy between men and women is narrowing. However, despite this trend, on average, women will still live longer than men. In 2030, the average life expectancy is expected to be 86.54 and 83.13 years for women and men respectively.
The study authors added that the shorter life expectancy of men is due to the fact that as they age, many of them lose their Y chromosomes in some part of the body’s cells. This process is associated with a high risk of developing age-related diseases.